Report outlines roadmap to curb firearm violence by 2040

A new report proposes a range of initiatives to substantially reduce the harm caused by firearm violence in the United States over the next 15 years. 

The report, published today in the journal JAMA, proposes a range of initiatives. These include using artificial intelligence (AI) and other technologies to detect concealed weapons, and expanding programs that address poverty, social distrust and other factors behind violence in American communities. 

The report summarizes discussions among 60 experts in public health, criminology, sociology, social work, public policy and other fields. JAMA convened the two-day summit last March to chart a “roadmap that will lead to substantial reductions in firearm violence, injuries and harm in the United States by 2040.” 

“We really tried to step back and think about what innovations are needed to address the firearm problem in a new way — realizing we live in a country with a Second Amendment and somewhere around 400 million firearms in private hands,” said Dr. Frederick P. Rivara, professor of pediatrics at the University of Washington School of Medicine. He chaired the summit. 

Since 2000, more than 800,000 Americans have been killed and more than 2 million injured by firearms. Firearm homicides peaked at 21,383 in 2021. Although rates have fallen 29% since then, homicides still totaled 16,725 in 2024. Firearm suicides, which account for 2 of every 3 firearm deaths, have climbed steadily since 2000, reaching 27,310 in 2023.  

The report notes that the harms to society caused by firearms extends beyond death and physical injury. These include psychological harm to people who witness shootings, whose loved ones have been killed or injured, and others who live in fear of firearm violence in their communities. 

The report recognizes that some U.S. Supreme Court decisions have limited restrictions on firearm ownership, but notes that a number of laws regulating gun use — such as those requiring background checks, safe storage and the surrender of weapons by individuals considered at high risk for violence — still pass legal muster and have been implemented in many states. 

Promising social programs cited by the report include community violence- intervention programs, such as those that connect law enforcement and social services to help high-risk individuals obtain housing and financial assistance, job training and placement, and therapeutic support. 

AI, the report noted, can be used to enhance police enforcement and community-intervention programs by identifying high-risk individuals and locations. Such use of the technology, however, raises issues of privacy and civil liberties, which must be addressed in parallel, the report cautioned. 

Finally, the report called for action toward the root-level causes of firearm violence by changing inequitable social structures that give rise to them — an approach it calls “primordial prevention.” Such actions would include promoting “housing stability, economic opportunity, environmental improvement and equitable policies” in communities that have suffered from a long history of segregation, neglect and disinvestment, the report said. 

“The promise of primordial prevention lies in its power to shift the very conditions under which violence becomes possible and simultaneously improve health and safety. By restoring trust, redistributing power and redesigning context, these innovations can help build a future where firearm injury is not just treated, but prevented,” the report said. 

Other UW Medicine authors who contributed to the report are Drs. Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, professor of epidemiology and pediatrics, and Dimitri Christakis, professor of pediatrics. 

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